Trillion-Dollar Tech Giant Slides 5.7%

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  • February 27, 2025

In a remarkable turn of events, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) has eclipsed a significant milestone in the stock market by becoming the first technology company in China's A-share market to achieve a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan. This meteoric rise is notable, particularly given that just a couple of years prior, in October 2019, the stock was valued at approximately 70 yuan per share. Fast forward to June 4, 2021, and the stock reached an unprecedented high of 439 yuan, showcasing an increase of over 500%. This unprecedented achievement is considered an extraordinary signal for the A-share market, igniting discussions among investors and analysts alike about the potential implications for the future.

However, the burst of enthusiasm surrounding CATL's soaring stock price was swiftly overshadowed by a sudden downturn on the very day it achieved its historical peak. The stock experienced a sharp drop of 5.7%, and at one point during the trading session, it even fell by more than 7%. Investors and market watchers began to ponder the reasons behind this unexpected plunge, especially in light of the company's recent accomplishments.

The fundamental cause behind this decline was the onset of a share lockup expiration. CATL first went public on June 11, 2018, and as the three-year anniversary approached, significant numbers of shares became eligible for trading. Specifically, on June 11, 2021, a staggering 952 million shares were released from lockup, translating to an enormous potential market value of approximately 390 billion yuan based on the stock price at the time. This release marked one of the largest share unlockings in the A-share market for the year, leading to a natural rebalancing of supply and demand dynamics.

To put the scale of this event into perspective, the unlock event constituted approximately 40.88% of CATL's total outstanding shares, thereby achieving a near-total float of shares which rose to about 99.14%. The remaining withheld shares were primarily related to equity incentives, further illustrating just how much stock was made available for public trading. This expansion of freely tradable shares can create significant volatility, as the market adjusts to the new supply.

It is essential to note that while stock prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, the true market value of shares is often not accurately reflected until full liquidity is achieved. Following an initial public offering (IPO), stocks typically experience substantial price increases, largely because the percentage of shares available for trading is minimal—often not exceeding 25%, and in some cases, it can be as low as 10%. This scarcity encourages speculative trading and can lead to inflated prices. However, as the lockup periods come to an end, the influx of shares can result in a significant price correction process.

CATL stands as a leading player in the burgeoning field of new energy power systems and is recognized as the largest lithium battery manufacturer globally. Its prominence in the electric vehicle (EV) sector marks it as one of the most promising industries of the future. Despite CATL's strong financial performance, the robustness of its stock price remains a critical point of reflection, particularly as it withstands upcoming challenges from the release of 400 billion yuan worth of unlocked shares.

The concept of liquidity and the broad release of shares is a stringent test that every publicly traded company must face, and CATL is no exception. The company has been on an impressive growth trajectory; the year 2021 is expected to continue the trend of substantial revenue growth. Many production lines established in previous years have now come online, enabling the company to capitalize on market demand effectively. For businesses with guaranteed sales, expanded production capacity directly translates into increased revenue and wealth.

In 2020, CATL achieved a revenue of 50.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the net profit reached 5.58 billion yuan, increasing by 22.4%. Despite this being the lowest growth rate since 2015, the first quarter of 2021 exhibited marked improvements with a revenue of 19.2 billion yuan, soaring by 112%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, which represents a striking year-on-year growth of 163%. With new production lines operational, companies like CATL, that do not worry about sales, see their production capabilities translate directly into revenue, emphasizing that production capacity is indeed wealth.

The potential impacts of share unlock events on stock prices are a constant topic of fascination within the capital markets. It is crucial to differentiate between share unlocks and the action of significant shareholders reducing their stakes. For example, the prior year saw a prominent bull stock, Yingke Medical, suffer a rapid decline following announcements from its major shareholders to sell their shares—a move that resulted in a trading halt on its shares. In contrast, CATL has shown remarkable resilience in its stock price amidst pressure from the unlocking of shares.

If major shareholders or principal investors refrain from substantial reduction in their holdings following this unlocking, then given CATL’s robust industry stature, strong earnings metrics, and the market’s optimistic projections for future performance, the stock's price should be able to weather this unlocking event. However, should major shareholders succumb to the temptation to sell shares following the dramatic price increase, it could lead to significant disruptions in the company's stock price well beyond simple share unlocking influences. Such actions might not only unsettle market confidence regarding the company's future trajectory but could also expose potential deficiencies in the strategic vision and planning of the company's management. The hallmark of a great enterprise includes having a core management team that possesses foresight and long-term strategic plans to uphold stable development and maintain a positive market image.

Ultimately, the unlocking of shares should not induce panic among investors provided there is a corresponding lack of major reductions in shareholding. As long as major shareholders adhere to the principle of holding, the ramifications on stock performance can be managed effectively.

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